sirabhop's blog

Tag: 2025

  • Log-Log, Log-Lin, and Lin-Log

    1. Outcome is log-transformed (Log–Lin) Model Interpretation 2. Predictor is log-transformed (Lin–Log) Model Interpretation 3. Both outcome and predictor log-transformed (Log–Log) Model Interpretation 📊 Quick Reference Table Model Equation Coefficient meaning Log–Lin ln y = β₀ + β₁ x 1 unit x → ≈ 100 β₁ % change in y (exact 100(e^{β₁}−1) %) Lin–Log y…

  • Japan’s First Female Prime Minister

    Japan has made history on 21 October 2025, Sanae Takaichi was elected by the National Diet as the country’s first female prime minister. She succeeded Shigeru Ishiba. Observers view her ascent as a symbolic breakthrough in the Japan political landscape after a long domination by men. This milestone invites us to reflect on what research…

  • What 1980s Economists Can Teach Southeast Asia Today: Median Voters, Redistribution & Debt

    In 1981 Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard published a paper that has been taught in a political economics class at MIT. Their simple model starts with two observations. When the median voter decides the tax rate under majority rule, the size of government is struggling by the force between mean income and the median voter’s income. If…

  • What Burma Teaches Us About the Killings

    Recently, I read “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War” by Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken (2009). The paper’s main point is that when assassination succeed against autocratic leaders, countries are more likely to move toward democracy. And assassinations tend to intensify conflict. The study compares successful and failed…

  • The Party That Never Learned

    On 7 Aug 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party (MFP) and banned its executives for 10 years, citing the party’s campaign to amend Article 112. Pita, a Harvard Kennedy School alumni was the prime–ministerial candidate in 2023, but the military-appointed Senate blocked his sworn in. While four years earlier, the Future Forward…

  • Inductive Reasoning

    How Inductive Arguments Can Be Strengthened or Weakened Types of Inductive Reasoning 1. Generalization 2. Predictive Argument Common Fallacies in Inductive Reasoning • Hasty Generalization • Fallacy of Unrepresentative Sample

  • The Liberation Day

    On April 3, 2025, equity markets experienced significant volatility following the steep tariffs imposed by Trump. The Dow Jones plummeted and marked the worst day for traders since 2020. This decline raises questions about whether this reaction was a panic sell-off or it’s a sign of the new normal by increased prices and instability. To…

  • An Opportunity

    This comment is from a YouTube VDO about global market economics analysis. A random guy just won a fortune 16 times the initial fund from watching that clip, while I and others couldn’t make any dime out of this VDO. It reminds me of the saying that Opportunities come to those who are prepared. If…

  • Myanmar Earthquake

    Last Friday, March 28th, 2025, the 7.7-magnitude quake from Myanmar hit Bangkok. Many of us were stunned. We’d always been taught that our country didn’t lie on tectonic plate boundaries, so we assumed we were safe from earthquakes. They forget to mention the possibility of the impact from neighboring countries. I believe most people found…

  • Literally Impact

    In 2023, I joined the company called Purple Ventures, a super app platform, the businesses covering from food delivery to online travel agency. That’s where I met Donut, my chief data officer. He was the one who took me in as a data scientist. Even I didn’t hold a degree that related to data science…